Article ID Journal Published Year Pages File Type
976018 Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications 2010 7 Pages PDF
Abstract
The long episode of negative values in the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index during the winter season 2009-2010 has attracted more attention to its predictability. Previous analyses (Fernández et al. (2003) [16] and Caldeira et al. (2007) [25]) by this same author group have established that the NAO signal behaves as a slightly red noise and therefore the prediction of the phenomenon must rely upon a deeper understanding of the underlying Physics. In this paper the authors address a predictability study of the NAO index by applying the “detrended fluctuation analysis” (DFA) to a composite series, completed with a bootstrap spectral analysis. The DFA provides a quantitative measure of predictability by computing several piecewise fits, either linear or higher degree polynomial ones, to a cumulative series of fluctuations associated to the original series. These newer measurements agree with the previous results.
Related Topics
Physical Sciences and Engineering Mathematics Mathematical Physics
Authors
, , ,