Statistical Evaluations of Business Cycle Phases

This paper's goal is to fit the evolution of the business cycle into a simple statistical model. The price of gold was chosen as an economical indicator due to increased stability at political and accidental changes. Statistical testing using chi square test was employed to find the right distribution for each phase of the economical cycle, opposed to the idea that the normal distribution is universally valid. The reasearch proved that the chosen variable follows a different statistical distribution for each phase of the business cycle. Data analysis was performed using EasyFit software.