Long-term vacant housing in the United States

•Long-term vacancy is an important measure of excess housing supply.•Long-term vacancy is a small share of aggregate vacancy.•Long-term vacancy is concentrated in few neighborhoods with high vacancy rates.•In some neighborhoods long-term vacancy is due to overbuilding•In other neighborhoods, long-term vacancy is due to persistently weak demand.

Long-term vacancy—defined as nonseasonal housing units that have been vacant for an unusually long period of time—is a useful measure of excess supply in the housing market. In fact, long-term vacancy is more strongly correlated with indicators of housing market distress than standard measures of vacancy. At the national level, long-term vacancy is relatively uncommon. However, the stock of long-term vacant housing is concentrated in a small number of neighborhoods with high long-term vacancy rates. Some of these neighborhoods have characteristics suggestive of overbuilding during the housing boom, while others have characteristics symptomatic of persistently weak housing demand.