Article ID | Journal | Published Year | Pages | File Type |
---|---|---|---|---|
983103 | Procedia Economics and Finance | 2012 | 10 Pages |
Abstract
In this paper, we forecast the volatility and price of SET50 Index using the Markov Regime Switching GARCH (MRS-GARCH) models. These models allow volatility to have different dynamics according to unobserved regime variables. The main purpose of this paper is to find out whether the MRS-GARCH models are an improvement on the GARCH type models in terms of modeling and forecast volatility and price of the SET50 Index. The MRS-GARCH under the GED distribution is best performance model for the SET50 Index volatility. Moreover, we forecast closing price of SET50 Index, we found the MRS-GARCH under t-distribution with two degree of freedoms model is perform best.
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