A sectoral analysis of the financial instability hypothesis

•Minsky's Financial Instability Hypothesis is applied to various NAICS industry groups.•Some sectors develop much more closely in accordance with the FIH than others.•Recessionary contraction spreads from the riskiest, most overleveraged sectors.•Relationships between the FIH and Austrian Business Cycle (ABC) theory are developed.

Hyman Minsky's Financial Instability Hypothesis (FIH) is applied to various North American Industrial Classification System (NAICS) industry groups, and it is found that some sectors develop much more closely in accordance with the FIH than others. Minsky categorized firms based on the relationship between cash flow and debt service requirements: hedge finance units, whose operating revenues are adequate to service current interest and principal on their debt; speculative finance units, which can meet interest payments but cannot pay down principal; and Ponzi finance units, which cannot meet current interest payments. The FIH is related to, as well as supportive of, Austrian Business Cycle (ABC) theory, because interest rates are negatively correlated with the proportion and market value of speculative firms in several sectors.