The structural transformation between manufacturing and services and the decline in the US GDP volatility

I construct a two-sector growth model to study the effect of the structural transformation between manufacturing and services on the decline in GDP volatility in the US. In the model, a change in the relative size of the two sectors affects the transmission mechanism that relates sectoral TFP shocks to endogenous variables. I calibrate the model to the US and show that, for given stochastic sectoral TFP processes in manufacturing and services, structural change generates a decline in the volatility of both aggregate TFP and GDP, in the volatility of each broad component of GDP (manufacturing consumption, services consumption and investment) and in the volatility of labor. Numerical results suggest that the structural transformation can account for 28% of the reduction in the US GDP volatility between the periods 1960–1983 and 1984–2005.

► I study the behavior of a two-sector growth model of structural transformation. ► The two sectors represent US manufacturing and services. ► Structural change implies an increase in services relative to manufacturing. ► Structural change generates a decline in the volatility of endogenous variables. ► 28% of the GDP volatility decline in the US is accounted for by structural change.