Exchange Rate Volatility and Employment Growth in Developing Countries: Evidence from Turkey

Employing a unique panel of 691 private firms that accounted for 26% of total value added in manufacturing in Turkey, the paper explores the impacts of exchange rate volatility on employment growth during the period of 1983-2005. The empirical analysis using a variety of specifications, estimation techniques, and robustness tests suggests that exchange rate volatility has a statistically and economically significant employment growth reducing effect on manufacturing firms. Using point estimates, the results suggest that for an average firm a one standard deviation increase in real exchange rate volatility reduces employment growth in the range of 1.4-2.1 percentage points.