Diffusion of low emission vehicles and their impact on CO2 emission reduction in Japan

•Impact of low emission vehicles is assessed using AIM/Enduse model in Japan.•The model is revised to reflect demand side management using low emission vehicle.•The share of low emission vehicles increases by 60% or 90% of total demand in 2050.•Share of intermittent renewable energy increases due to demand side management.•CO2 emissions from transport sector in 2050 decreases by 81% compared to 1990.

In order to achieve the long-term CO2 emission reduction target in Japan, diffusion of low emission vehicles can contribute by integration of intermittent renewable energy by demand side management using low emission vehicles, such as smart charging battery electric vehicle (BEV), in addition to improvement of energy efficiency and carbon intensity. In this study, impact of the low emission vehicles is assessed using AIM/Enduse model with 10 regions in Japan. The model is revised to integrate power generation sector and to separate the transportation demand into small, medium and large size vehicles in order to reflect the availability of BEV and fuel-cell electric vehicle (FCEV) in each vehicle size. In the Reference case, hybrid vehicle accounts for more than a half of transport demand in 2050. However, by introducing the carbon tax to achieve the 2 degree target, the share of both BEV and FCEV in 2050 reaches around 90% and 60% in passenger and freight transport, respectively. In addition, electricity demand pattern is transformed by demand side management in 2050 while integrating more intermittent renewable energy into electricity system. As a result, the CO2 emissions from transport sector in 2050 decreases by approximately 81% compared to the 1990 level.