Wildfire risk, salience & housing demand

In this paper we develop a parsimonious model that links underlying changes in location-specific risk perceptions to housing market dynamics. Given estimates of both the price and quantity effects induced by shocks to agents' beliefs, the model allows us to draw inferences about the underlying changes in risk perceptions that gave rise to observed housing market dynamics. We apply the model's predictions to an empirical analysis of the influence of severe wildfires on housing prices and sales rates in the Front Range of Colorado. Interpreted in the context of the model, our empirical results suggest that natural disasters lead to significant, but short-lived increases in risk perceptions.