Article ID Journal Published Year Pages File Type
1006299 Journal of Engineering and Technology Management 2015 22 Pages PDF
Abstract

The increasing uncertainty in technology and market trends makes it difficult for technology firms to capture emerging opportunities. This paper develops an R&D planning framework based on the real options analysis to identify, develop and evaluate technological opportunities. The developed methodology can encourage R&D organizations to proactively explore uncertainties and to identify managerial options to capture emerging opportunities. Furthermore, the developed real options model integrated with the Bass diffusion model can help R&D managers evaluate and select optimal investment decisions to maximize market payoff under different demand structures. The case of a biochip R&D project is studied.

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