Abbreviated Scenario Thinking

Scenario development is a time- and resource-intensive process, one that not all companies are positioned to undertake at any given point in time. As such, this article will propose an Abbreviated Scenario Thinking process that uses published scenarios from government and industry sources to allow companies to make strategic decisions based on the results. Scenarios are narratives that describe the possible futures in which one must compete 5, 10, or 20 years from now. They allow people to test possible actions by playing them out in three or four different ways. Scenarios are based on plausible consequences of events, environmental forces, and players as they occur in time, and create patterns of the future that can have substantively different effects on strategic decisions. Thus, scenarios are important to executives and managers in the 21st century as they develop competitive strategies. By employing Abbreviated Scenario Thinking, executives utilize published global scenarios to analyze the driving forces that affect their organizations, asking “What If?” as an entry point to scenario planning. This can produce benefits even before any formal scenarios are written.