Impact of the Carat Canal on the evolution of hub ports under China's Belt and Road initiative

Under China's Belt and Road (B&R) initiative, Carat Canal, a potential new channel of the Century Maritime Silk Road, will have a great impact on the shipping networks and the evolution of hub ports. A modified gravity prediction model with entropy maximizing principle is developed to calculate the changes in transshipment traffic. Taking account both customer preferences and spatial interaction, numerical experiments show that the opening of the Carat Canal shifts traffic volumes from the Malacca Strait, influences transshipment market shares among hub ports, and diversifies shipping network pattern. This study serves as a reference for hub port development along the Maritime Silk Road.