A theory of the evolution of settlement structures based on identification and use of patterns: Iceland as a case study

•Theory for long term, large scale future changes in settlement structures.•Basic drivers of change are: global warming, resources and spatial location.•With global warming, high lying and cold but warming areas become habitable.•Iceland's harsh highlands will become increasingly inhabitable.•Iceland and similar cold coastal regions in Northern Canada, Alaska and Siberia.

This paper presents a theory of how settlement structures originate and evolve, based on identifying drivers of change and resulting spatial settlement patterns. Climate, resources and their access, and spatial position are the primary drivers for the patterns of how settlement structures will evolve. As changes occur in these conditions the settlement structures eventually change. The method presented can be used to study how settlement structures may evolve in the future based on projections and predictions about changes in the drivers. The method is illustrated by using Iceland as a case study.The results of the case study suggest that global warming will induce a pull of settlements towards the warming highland plateau of the country because of less snow, better accessibility, and more vegetation. This will be helped by a push of settlements away from the coast towards the more elevated interior due to a rise in sea level. In Iceland, an opposite pattern – towards the coast – also applies because new transshipment harbours serving Arctic sea routes and oil resources will create a pull towards some parts of the coastline.