A review of scenario planning

This paper reviews the scenario planning literature looking for answers for the following questions: How do qualitative and quantitative scenario methods differ and what are the advantages and disadvantages? What methods exist for quantitative scenario planning? Particularly quantitative scenario methods often lead to a large number of so-called “raw” scenarios that need to be further refined, discussed, and verbally described. How do scenario planners select raw scenarios for further exploration and how many should they choose? How is the problem of validation addressed in scenario studies?

► Comparison of qualitative and quantitative scenario methods. ► Review of methods for quantitative scenario planning. ► Selection of raw scenarios. ► Validation of scenarios.