Oil at 150$—The tipping point for changing course of civilizations?

The present work offers a systemic perspective on post conventional oil futures. It is based on the model that accounts for a causal relationship between a dominant worldview in a society and the societal choice of technology and institutions, which then constrain and direct dynamics at the level of production and consumption. The Business as usual scenario provides an idea as where the world might be heading under the assumption of a myopic and unchanging worldview. The Western group leads the process of change scenario describes an evolutionary cascade of change in the Western group, which starts with a substantial change in a dominant worldview. Note that this substantial change is not a revolution – although its institutional solutions appear very challenging today, they do not necessarily stand out of the capitalist democracy. Finally, the third scenario is about global governance – a future that would leave least unknowns and least threats to Western civilization.

► Systemic perspective on alternative transitions to post peak-oil futures. ► Model shows causal relationship between a dominant worldview in a society and the societal choice of technology and institutions, which constrain modes of production and consumption. ► Three scenarios are presented: business as usual; Western group leads the process of change; global governance.