Building scenarios with Fuzzy Cognitive Maps: An exploratory study of solar energy

In scenario planning, causal mapping has long been used as a means to elicit the worldviews of multiple experts, facilitate discussion, and challenge and improve mental models. Large and complex causal maps, however, are difficult to analyze. This paper proposes a novel method for scenario building, based on Fuzzy Cognitive Maps, that combines intuitive, cognitive mapping techniques with formal, quantitative analysis. The proposed method helps scenario planners to integrate the qualitative and partial knowledge of multiple individuals and overcome information processing limitations. The feasibility of the proposed approach is investigated with two scenario studies on solar photovoltaic panels.