Predictions, past and present: World and Caribbean tourism

This paper argues that, given the complexity of the variables involved in tourism itself and the vast array of factors in the broader environment that can affect tourism, it is daring for anyone to try to predict the future of tourism, particularly on a regional scale, such as for the Caribbean. The paper begins with Burkart and Medlik's 1974 predictions about the future of global tourism, one of the first attempts to do so [A.J. Burkart, S. Medlik, Tourism: Past, Present, and Future, Heinemann, London, 1974]. When each of their predictions is evaluated in the current context, it is proposed that just over half of their predictions have come true. Given the vast number of knowns and unknowns affecting global tourism, their attempt was quite bold and instructive. A set of predictions concerning the future of Caribbean tourism is then presented, in an effort to demonstrate that predicting the future of tourism is akin to predicting the future of a “mess.”