Confirmatory search as a useful heuristic? testing the veracity of entrepreneurial conjectures

Researchers have focused attention on the problematic effects of confirmatory search applied to opportunity evaluations, arguing that a confirmatory strategy almost always leads to poor decisions. The implicit assumption of this research is that confirmatory search cannot conclusively falsify an entrepreneurial conjecture. In this article we focus on circumstances where the search for confirming information (positive test strategy) is a superior strategy for testing the veracity of a conjecture.

► Confirmatory search has been suggested as a flawed strategy to test an entrepreneurial conjecture. ► We illustrate how, why, and when some entrepreneurs are likely to believe in a conjecture (rather than suspend belief). ► We specify conditions where confirmatory search is likely to be a superior approach to testing the veracity of an entrepreneurial conjecture.