Uncertain but able: Entrepreneurial self-efficacy and novices׳ use of expert decision-logic under uncertainty

Entrepreneurs׳ initial strategy choices are made in the face of inherently uncertain and fundamentally unpredictable futures. Yet, unlike experts, novice entrepreneurs still tend to rely on predictions and forecasts as they move their ideas through the venture creation process. This study examines the role of entrepreneurial self-efficacy (ESE) and situational framing in mitigating the seemingly negative consequences of an “experience deficit” and promoting the use of effectuation - a non-predictive logic associated with entrepreneurial expertise. The results of a randomized experiment show that, in contrast to a control group and a low ESE group, novices who experienced an increase in ESE were more likely to use effectuation under uncertainty. This relationship was mediated by the framing of the situation as an opportunity.