Article ID Journal Published Year Pages File Type
1023097 Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review 2015 12 Pages PDF
Abstract

•We estimate truckload spot price premiums using a detailed transactional dataset.•Spot prices increase significantly as lead time decreases.•Other factors are important drivers of cost, including the bid day of week.•We propose a method of estimating truckload market conditions.•Market conditions exhibit significant first-order serial correlation.

This study explores the potential value to shippers of sharing load offers with carriers and obtaining carriers’ responses in advance of the scheduled pickup date. Using a private transactional dataset from a large national shipper, we find that truckload spot prices increase considerably as the lead time before pickup decreases. As an extension of this empirical analysis, we develop a method to estimate near-real-time market prices, which does not currently exist in the truckload industry. A key insight is that market prices persist through time, meaning that current prices are good predictors of future prices.

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Social Sciences and Humanities Business, Management and Accounting Business and International Management
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