Analyzing the impact of intermodal-related risk to the design and management of biofuel supply chain

•Present a model that designs reliable logistics network for a biomass supply chain.•Disruption probabilities of hubs are estimated using a probabilistic model.•An accelerated Benders decomposition algorithm is proposed to solve the problem.•Numerical results reveal impact of hub disruption risks on a biomass supply chain.

This study presents a mathematical model that designs a reliable multi-modal transportation network for a biofuel supply chain system, where intermodal hubs are subject to site-dependent probabilistic disruptions. The disruption probabilities of intermodal hubs are estimated by using a probabilistic model which is developed using real world data. We developed an accelerated Benders decomposition algorithm to solve this challenging NP-hard problem. Numerical analysis show that the model selects to use intermodal hubs located in areas with low disruption probabilities. In case of a disaster, the reliable solution results in 6.21% savings over the minimum cost solution.