Long- and Short-Run supply-chain optimization models for the allocation and congestion management of containerized imports from Asia to the United States

Analytical models are introduced for predicting the allocation to ports and transportation channels of containerized goods imported from Asia to the USA. Assuming fixed distributions for container flow-times, the Long-Run Model heuristically solves a mixed integer non-linear program to determine the least-cost supply-chain strategies for importers. The Short-Run Model uses estimates of the flow times as a function of traffic volumes on fixed infrastructure to iteratively develop the best near-term strategies. Minimum volume requirements and capacities for ports and landside channels are considered. The models are applied to predict the effects of container fees at the San Pedro Bay ports.

Research highlights► Analytical models predict shares of imports for ports and transportation channels. ► Port and channel container flow time distributions are fixed in Long-Run Model. ► Port and channel infrastructure are fixed in Short-Run Model. ► Short-Run Model iteratively develops solution using estimates of flow times. ► The models are applied to predict the effect of container fees at San Pedro Bay.