Using agent-based models to design social marketing campaign

摘要基于社区的社会营销(CBSM)在市场促销中吸引社区成员积极参与能为社会带来好处。但是, 采用为营销人员提供的标准工具来模拟CBSM中社区成员的行为效果不佳。我们演示如何采用基于主体建模(ABM)来模拟社区成员的个人行为, 围绕社区营销效果假说, 判定CBSM促销效果的敏感度。我们为湿地经理开发了一套ABM, 采用这个方法模拟在湿地地区促进环境旅游的营销计划效果。湿地经理必须权衡营销成本及旅游活动对湿地所造成的破坏与生态旅游所带来的价值。我们从模拟中发现的证据表明, 湿地生态健康对社会营销设计反应敏感。

Community-based social marketing (CBSM) involves members of the community as active participants in the marketing campaign for a social good. However behaviour of community members in CBSM is not well simulated using the standard tools available to marketers. We show how agent-based models (ABMs) can be used to simulate the behaviour of community members at the individual level to determine how sensitive the outcome of a CBSM campaign is to assumptions around the effectiveness of marketing within the community. We develop an ABM for wetlands managers to use to simulate the outcome of a marketing plan for promotion of environmental tourism in a wetlands area. The wetlands managers must trade off the costs of marketing and the damage done by the tourism activities with the value of ecotourism for the wetland. We find evidence from the simulations that wetlands’ ecological health is sensitive to the design of the social marketing campaign.