An analysis of the impact of aircraft lifecycles on aviation emissions mitigation policies

Many options for mitigating aviation's environmental impact rely on introduction of new aircraft technology, retrofits or early retirement of older aircraft. Using a global fleet database, we analyse aircraft lifecycles and their interaction with fuel price, demand, policy and economic cycles. Simple relationships, including aircraft retirement curves, are estimated to allow insight into the effectiveness and timescales of emissions reductions from these measures. We find variations in retirement age and retrofits have historically had little effect on global emissions. The design and purchasing stages offer a more promising target, subject to long timescales and demand growth rates.