Will there be an airplane capacity glut by 2012?

Airbus and Boeing experienced a sharp increase in aircraft orders beginning in 2006 and continuing through 2007. When projecting the deliveries for those aircraft orders over the next several years, and after accounting for aircraft required for growth and expected aircraft retirements, a capacity glut is foreseen with supply exceeding demand by the 2011/2012 timeframe. This excess capacity will likely result in downward pressure on yields, especially in key long haul markets, such as those linking Europe and Asia. This paper examines the potential for such a capacity glut to occur.