Thermoregulatory model for prediction of long-term cold exposure

A multi-segmental mathematical model has been developed for predicting shivering and thermoregulatory responses during long-term cold exposure. The present model incorporates new knowledge on shivering thermogenesis, including the control and maximal limits of its intensity, inhibition due to a low core temperature, and prediction of endurance time. The model also takes into account individual characteristics of age, height, weight, % body fat, and maximum aerobic capacity. The model was validated against three different cold conditions i.e. water immersion up to 38h and air exposure. The predictions were found to be in good agreement with the observations.