Article ID | Journal | Published Year | Pages | File Type |
---|---|---|---|---|
10371146 | Environmental Modelling & Software | 2005 | 6 Pages |
Abstract
This study evaluates the forecasting performance of two modeling approaches, ARIMA and Thomas-Fiering, for selected water quality constituents and streamflow of the YeÅilırmak River at Durucasu monitoring station. For this purpose, 13-year (1984-1996) monthly time series records were used to obtain the best model of each water quality constituent and streamflow from both modeling approaches. The comparison of the mean and variance of 5-year (1997-2001) observed data vs. forecasted data from the selected best models showed that the pH model from Thomas-Fiering, and EC and Clâ models from ARIMA modeling approaches should be used with caution since the forecasting values from these models does not preserve the basic statistics of observed data in terms of mean. Also the results of forecast accuracy measures including root mean square error and mean absolute error calculated for two approaches indicated that between two approaches, for YeÅilırmak River Thomas-Fiering model presents more reliable forecasting of water quality constituents and streamflow than ARIMA model.
Related Topics
Physical Sciences and Engineering
Computer Science
Software
Authors
Ahmet Kurunç, Kadri Yürekli, Osman Ãevik,