Studying scenario planning: Theory, research suggestions, and hypotheses

The scenario planning literature reveals a gap regarding its research and theory development. This article addresses these gaps by beginning the development of a theory of scenario planning and by providing suggestions for research. To do so, this research uses Dubin's (R. Dubin, Theory Building, revised ed., Free Press/MacMillan, New York, 1978) technique for theory building in applied disciplines and then provides suggestions for verifying each aspect of the proposed theory. While this research is preliminary in nature, its intent is to work toward a theoretical understanding and validation of scenario planning practices through sound research. Thus, the core purpose of this article is to provide an approach to studying scenario planning that is based on research, theory, and practice.