Spatial and temporal projection of fuelwood and charcoal consumption in Mexico

•We model residential fuelwood and charcoal consumption in Mexico from 2010 to 2030•A large heterogeneity is found across the counties in terms of biomass use patterns•Together FW and charcoal use accounts for 46% of total residential energy•50% of municipalities have more than 60% of fuelwood users•Fuelwood use decreases slightly and charcoal increases by 20% from 2010 to 2030

Fuelwood and charcoal are fundamental fuel sources for the residential sector in Mexico. A Business-As-Usual (BAU) projection by means of a spatially-explicit approach was developed to assess national fuelwood and charcoal consumption for the period 2010 to 2030. The model was calibrated for 1990–2000 and 2010 projections were validated against official census data for the same year. For 2010, we estimated that fuelwood and charcoal accounted for 48% of total residential energy demand. The projection of fuelwood consumption declined slightly from 19.4 Mt (dry matter) or 310 PJ in 2010 to 18.4 Mt or 294 PJ by 2030. An important future growth of mixed fuelwood–LPG users is expected pointing out that fuel stacking rather than fuel switching out of fuelwood would prevail. Charcoal consumption increased from 3.8 Mt (dried wood equivalent) or 61 PJ to 4.7 Mt or 75 PJ during the same period. A relevant outcome of the spatial assessment was the uncovering of large variations in fuelwood and charcoal use trends among spatial units (municipalities), hidden by the national aggregated trends. This opens up the opportunity to analyze regional variability to identify priority areas regarding fuelwood and charcoal use.