A unified convex-concave model of urban land values

This study develops and fits a nonlinear, unified convex-concave model for land sales. The model's flexibility accommodates convexity for small parcels, concavity for large parcels, a non-deterministic change point while accounting for spatial correlation. All parameters are fit simultaneously from a Bayesian perspective using Markov Chain Monte Carlo techniques. Virtually all previous models for land sales are shown to be special cases of the unified model. The results indicate an 86.9% probability of convexity (plottage) for parcels smaller than 3516 ft2.