Trend of technology innovation in China's coal-fired electricity industry under resource and environmental constraints

► This research builds a technology-based bottom-up model to reflect the relationship between technology structure and the performance in resource and environment of China's coal-fired electricity industry. ► Coal consumption intensities for the electricity supply fail to meet the national control target in the three technology innovation scenarios. ► As the best route of technology innovation, SC and USC pressure boilers, FGD and closed-cycle wet cooling with a high circulation ratio will be the mainstream technologies before 2030 based on current policy. ► Air cooling and FGD systems will expand slower than the authorities' expectation, while higher water prices and SO2 charges promote the expansion. ► Technology innovation is proven to be the determinant in decreasing resource use and environmental effects from electricity production, and stricter national control targets are found to be positive for technological progress.