Leadership and uncertainty: complexity and the lessons of history

Problems faced by military leaders will be used to evaluate techniques for dealing with the limits of knowledge. A survey of recent scientific developments will establish that knowledge is limited in principle, and historical examples for coping with limited knowledge in practice will then be analyzed. The convergence between the science of complexity and successful cases of social evolution indicates that the limits of knowledge extend the frontiers of understanding. Concluding sections will briefly explore some ethical implications potentially useful to political and social leaders.