An economic-probabilistic model for risk analysis in technological innovation projects

This paper presents the application of an economic-probabilistic model to conduct risk analysis in technological innovation (TI) projects. The model integrates risk and economic analysis by quantifying both value and probability of occurrence of cash flow deviations, thus resulting in an economic-probabilistic analysis of the expected returns. The main risk categories and factors in TI projects are identified and associated to cash flow groups. The model allows to calculate risk-adjusted values for cash flow groups and project net present value through stochastic simulation. As a result, the model provides both the risk-adjusted project economic return with the associated probability distribution to its NPV and the variability that each risk factor generates in the project return. The model offers important benefits from the point of view of practitioners, including a condensed list of independent risk factors and the use of a monetary scale to assess risk impact which is familiar to most decision makers.