Black Death-model and simulation

The Black Death analysis and data organizing have been performed in unifying manners, among others, by Byrne and Christakos. The mathematical modelling of Noble of 1974 did not originate full spatiotemporal 2D simulations. The present model incorporates a new term to calculate the effects of the interaction between contagion and short range dislocations. The contagion rate term is modified to account for saturation effects in the contact rate. The model and parameters used very nearly reproduce important features of the spatiotemporal evolution of the Black Death, the calculated global mortality attaining a very large fraction of the European population.