Article ID | Journal | Published Year | Pages | File Type |
---|---|---|---|---|
11002679 | Applied Soft Computing | 2018 | 36 Pages |
Abstract
Accurate and stable annual electricity consumption forecasting play vital role in modern social and economic development through providing effective planning and guaranteeing a reliable supply of sustainable electricity. However, establishing a robust method to improve prediction accuracy and stability simultaneously of electricity consumption forecasting has been proven to be a highly challenging task. Most previous researches only pay more attention to enhance prediction accuracy, which usually ignore the significant of forecasting stability, despite its importance to the effectiveness of forecasting models. Considering the characteristics of annual power consumption data as well as one criterion i.e. accuracy or stability is insufficient, in this study a novel hybrid forecasting model based on an improved grey forecasting mode optimized by multi-objective ant lion optimization algorithm is successfully developed, which can not only be utilized to dynamic choose the best input training sets, but also obtain satisfactory forecasting results with high accuracy and strong ability. Case studies of annual power consumption datasets from several regions in China are utilized as illustrative examples to estimate the effectiveness and efficiency of the proposed hybrid forecasting model. Finally, experimental results indicated that the proposed forecasting model is superior to the comparison models.
Keywords
Related Topics
Physical Sciences and Engineering
Computer Science
Computer Science Applications
Authors
Jianzhou Wang, Pei Du, Haiyan Lu, Wendong Yang, Tong Niu,