Article ID | Journal | Published Year | Pages | File Type |
---|---|---|---|---|
11020540 | Social Science Research | 2018 | 45 Pages |
Abstract
Since the 1970s, criminal justice contact has become an increasingly common event in early adulthood, and disproportionately so for African American men. Policymakers often argue that reducing drug-related conviction rates is among the easiest ways to reduce racial/ethnic disparities in incarceration. These arguments are often backed by statistics that convey the number of drug offenders in contact with the criminal justice system at a given point in time. Unfortunately, we know little about the extent to which over-time conviction risk and associated racial/ethnic disparities may be affected by drug-related policy changes. Using a novel application of the single decrement life table to analyze data from the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth 1997 (NLSY97), I present a quantitative thought experiment to consider the extent to which the elimination of drug-related offenses would affect racial/ethnic disparities in men's cumulative probability of conviction by age 30. Consistent with prior research, results indicate that black men are at disproportionately higher risk of ever experiencing a drug-related conviction, and of experiencing a drug-related conviction at each conviction instance. More surprising, however, is the finding that while the removal of drug sentencing may significantly impact racial/ethnic disparities associated with conviction, only a relatively small proportion of those ever convicted would avoid conviction altogether in the absence of drug-related sentencing.
Keywords
Related Topics
Social Sciences and Humanities
Psychology
Social Psychology
Authors
Alyssa W. Goldman,