Estimation of contingency tables in complex survey sampling using probabilistic expert systems

In this paper we explore the possibility to use a particular class of models, known as probabilistic expert systems, to define two classes of estimators of a contingency table in case of stratified sampling designs. The two classes are characterized by the different role of the sampling design: in the first, the sampling design is treated as an additional variable; in the second, it is used only for estimation purposes by means of the survey weights. The bias/variance trade off of these estimators is analyzed and the consequences of model misspecification are illustrated. Furthermore, it is shown that the Horvitz-Thompson estimator belongs to both classes of estimators. It comes out that the Horvitz-Thompson estimator is almost always inefficient but robust. Monte Carlo simulations illustrate the efficiency of the proposed estimators.