Feasibility study of 2020 target costs for PEM fuel cells and lithium-ion batteries: A two-factor experience curve approach

Vehicles with electric drive trains are currently the subject of intense discussion by society. The cost trends of the individual components in the electric drive train are a central aspect of the future market success of the different vehicle drive systems.An innovative two-factor experience curve approach was developed to facilitate the generation of the most meaningful cost forecasts for these components. This enables the creation of a flexible cost forecast model that supplements the two-factor experience curve approach by an analogous technology component.The performance of the model was demonstrated using alternative drive components, namely the proton exchange membrane (PEM) fuel cell stack, a high energy lithium-ion battery and a high power lithium-ion battery.A comparison of the forecast values calculated using this model with the industry targets determined by McKinsey in the study “A portfolio of power-trains for Europe” [1] shows that the realization of these targets for the fuel cell stack is possible if the product volume increases rapidly enough. For the high energy and high power lithium-ion battery targets, the product volume and research and development activity, measured here in terms of patent growth, need to grow compared to the trend of the last years.

► We developed a new two-factor experience curve approach for our cost forecast model. ► The model endogenous cost degression is driven by output and patent publications. ► For the fuel cell stack, 2020 costs of €36–€49/kW were calculated. ► For high energy Li-ion batteries, 2020 costs of €309–€408/kWh were calculated. ► For high power Li-ion batteries, 2020 costs of €38–€46/kW were calculated.