Career trajectory in high school dropouts

•We identified three kinds of career trajectories of former dropouts: dead-end career, stepping-stone career, and well-building career.•The majority of dropouts are in the dead-end career trajectory.•About 30% of dropouts are in the process of escaping low-status jobs through accumulating work experience.•Gender, race, cognitive ability, and having a computer at home are related to the different types of career trajectories.

This study considers the career trajectories of high school dropouts, which has been given little attention to in the literature. Considering worker heterogeneity for individuals who do not complete high school, we estimate possible career trajectories and investigate the traits related with the decision to drop out. Using latent class growth analysis, three kinds of career trajectories are identified: dead-end, stepping-stone, and advancing careers. Although the majority of dropouts are in the dead-end careers, about 30% are in the process of escaping low-status jobs through acquiring work experience. Individual traits, such as gender, race, and cognitive ability, as well as home computer access are significantly related to the different types of career trajectories.