Crimes and violence in Mexico: Evidence from panel data

Drug-related violence is now an everyday occurrence in Mexico's northern border-states. While it often appears that all crimes are on the rise in the border region, the actual number of alleged offenders caught and brought to court differs significantly for different types of crime. Using panel data for Mexico's 31 states plus the Federal District from 2004 to 2008, it was found that there were more alleged offenders caught per 100,000 inhabitants involving theft, property damage, and carrying prohibited arms, in Mexico's northern border-states compared to interior states. The effects of other socioeconomic variables on crime in Mexico, such as GDP, incarceration rates, births to single mothers and expenditures on public security, were also examined.

► Higher incarceration rates and expenditures on public security were found to reduce crime rates in Mexico. ► There were more crimes involving theft and carrying prohibited arms in Mexico's northern border-states, compared to interior states. ► Increases in GDP led to decreases in crimes involving fraud and rape.