What happens after compulsory education? Problems of continuity and possible policies in the case of Spain

The lack of opportunities to enter post-compulsory education in Spain and other countries in southern Europe is a serious problem from the point of view of the requirements of the productive system as well as the social inequality that it creates. This article analyses the effect of a range of variables on that lack of opportunity and various public policy measures are proposed that are directed towards reinforcing the continuity of young people in the education system. The analysis is carried out through the proposal and estimation of a multinomial logistic regression model that permits the identification of factors associated with the process of passing from compulsory education to the possibilities that are open when this finishes (with regard to the education system and the labor market). The model is applied to a sample of individuals of 16 and 17 years of age from the European Community Household Panel in the year 2000 wave. The analysis allows the identification of two groups of variables that affect the probability of following the different paths that are open at the end of compulsory education. On the one hand, there is social and cultural background (reflected in variables such as the social class and education of the parents) and on the other, there is the region of residence, the effect of which derives essentially from the differences that exist between the labor markets. The article concludes by putting forward a set of mainly educational public policies that have the object of increasing access to post-compulsory education. These policies are mostly equity oriented.