Optimal robust optimization approximation for chance constrained optimization problem

•Study the relationship between uncertainty set size and solution reliability.•A novel solution algorithm for optimal uncertainty set size identification.•Identify the best robust solution that solves the chance constrained problem.•Solution quality validated through upper bound of constraint violation probability.

Chance constraints are useful for modeling solution reliability in optimization under uncertainty. In general, solving chance constrained optimization problems is challenging and the existing methods for solving a chance constrained optimization problem largely rely on solving an approximation problem. Among the various approximation methods, robust optimization can provide safe and tractable analytical approximation. In this paper, we address the question of what is the optimal (least conservative) robust optimization approximation for the chance constrained optimization problems. A novel algorithm is proposed to find the smallest possible uncertainty set size that leads to the optimal robust optimization approximation. The proposed method first identifies the maximum set size that leads to feasible robust optimization problems and then identifies the best set size that leads to the desired probability of constraint satisfaction. Effectiveness of the proposed algorithm is demonstrated through a portfolio optimization problem, a production planning and a process scheduling problem.