A high order method for orbital conjunctions analysis: Sensitivity to initial uncertainties

•We develop a high-fidelity numerical propagator for space debris.•We use differential algebra to Taylor expand TCA and DCA w.r.t. initial conditions.•We use the Taylor maps to quickly assess the effect of uncertainties on TCA and DCA.•We assess performances in terms of computational time and accuracy.

A high order method to quickly assess the effect that uncertainties produce on orbital conjunctions through a numerical high-fidelity propagator is presented. In particular, the dependency of time and distance of closest approach to initial uncertainties on position and velocity of both objects involved in a conjunction is studied. The approach relies on a numerical integration based on differential algebraic techniques and a high-order algorithm that expands the time and distance of closest approach in Taylor series with respect to relevant uncertainties. The modeled perturbations are atmospheric drag, using NRLMSISE-00 air density model, solar radiation pressure with shadow, third body perturbation using JPL’s DE405 ephemeris, and EGM2008 gravity model. The polynomial approximation of the final position is used as an input to compute analytically the expansion of time and distance of closest approach. As a result, the analysis of a close encounter can be performed through fast, multiple evaluations of Taylor polynomials. Test cases with objects ranging from LEO to GEO regimes are considered to assess the performances and the accuracy of the proposed method.