A real options–based CCS investment evaluation model: Case study of China’s power generation sector

This paper establishes a carbon capture and storage (CCS) investment evaluation model based on real options theory considering uncertainties from the existing thermal power generating cost, carbon price, thermal power with CCS generating cost, and investment in CCS technology deployment. The model aims to evaluate the value of the cost saving effect and amount of CO2 emission reduction through investing in newly-built thermal power with CCS technology to replace existing thermal power in a given period from the perspective of power generation enterprises. The model is solved by the Least Squares Monte Carlo (LSM) method. Since the model could be used as a policy analysis tool, China is taken as a case study to evaluate the effects of regulations on CCS investment through scenario analysis. The findings show that the current investment risk of CCS is high, climate policy having the greatest impact on CCS development. Thus, there is an important trade off for policy makers between reducing greenhouse gas emissions and protecting the interests of power generation enterprises. The research presented would be useful for CCS technology evaluation and related policy-making.

► This paper establishes a carbon captures and storage (CCS) investment evaluation model. ► The model is based on real options theory and solved by the Least Squares Monte Carlo (LSM) method. ► China is taken as a case study to evaluate the effects of regulations on CCS investment. ► The findings show that the current investment risk of CCS is high, climate policy having the greatest impact on CCS development.