Article ID | Journal | Published Year | Pages | File Type |
---|---|---|---|---|
244803 | Applied Energy | 2010 | 7 Pages |
Past and future trend of electricity use for air conditioning in the entire commercial sector in subtropical climates using 1979–2008 measured meteorological data as well as predictions for 2009–2100 from a general circulation model (MIROC3.2-H) was investigated. Air conditioning consumption showed an increasing trend over the past 30 years from 1979 to 2008. Principal component analysis (PCA) of measured and predicted monthly mean dry-bulb temperature, wet-bulb temperature and global solar radiation was conducted to determine a new climatic index Z for 1979–2008 and future 92 years (2009–2100) based on two emissions scenarios B1 and A1B (low and medium forcing). Through regression analysis, electricity use in air conditioning for the 92-year period was estimated. For low forcing, average consumption in 2009–2038, 2039–2068 and 2069–2100 would be, respectively, 5.7%, 12.8% and 18.4% more than the 1979–2008 average, with a mean 12.5% increase for the entire 92-year period. Medium forcing showed a similar increasing trend, but 1–4% more. Standard deviations of the monthly air conditioning consumption were found to be smaller suggesting possible reduction in seasonal variations in future years.