Potential dengue vaccine demand in disease endemic and non-endemic countries

A dengue vaccine is likely to be available within the next 3-5 years and we estimated vaccine doses needed for dengue endemic countries (public and private markets) and non-endemic countries (travelers market) in the first 5 years after initial licensure. Calculations were based on 2015-2020 population projections for Asian and Americas endemic countries, and expected country-specific vaccination coverage in public, private, and travelers’ sectors. Fifty-four countries were considered dengue-endemic with a population of 2.8 billion, including an annual cohort of 54 million 12-23 month old children. During the 5-year period an estimated 645 million vaccine doses would be required for early childhood immunization and up to 2 billion doses for catch-up immunization, with 80% in endemic countries being in the public sector. An estimated 59-89 million doses would be needed for the travelers market. These should be considered upper-limit estimates, with actual demand dependent on country-specific introduction strategies, price and final vaccine product profile.