Prognostic Value of N-Terminal Pro-Brain Natriuretic Peptide in Outpatients With Hypertrophic Cardiomyopathy

In hypertrophic cardiomyopathy, the plasma levels of N-terminal pro-brain natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP) correlate with functional capacity. However, their prognostic relevance remains unresolved. We followed up 183 stable outpatients with hypertrophic cardiomyopathy (age 50 ± 17 years, 64% men) for 3.9 ± 2.8 years after NT-proBNP measurement. The primary end point included cardiovascular death, heart transplantation, resuscitated cardiac arrest, and appropriate implantable cardioverter-defibrillator intervention. The secondary end point (SE) included heart failure-related death or hospitalization, progression to end-stage disease, and stroke. The median NT-proBNP level was 615 pg/ml (intertertile range 310 to 1,025). The incidence of the primary end point in the lower, middle, and upper tertiles was 0%, 1.3%, and 2.1% annually, respectively (overall p = 0.01). On multivariate analysis, the only independent predictors of the primary end point were NT-proBNP (hazard ratio for log-transformed values 5.8, 95% confidence interval 1.07 to 31.6; p = 0.04) and a restrictive left ventricular filling pattern (hazard ratio 5.19, 95% confidence interval 1.3 to 21.9; p = 0.02). The NT-proBNP cutoff value of 810 pg/ml had the best sensitivity for the primary end point (88%), but the specificity was low (61%). The incidence of the SE in the lower, middle, and upper NT-proBNP tertiles was 4.6%, 12.0%, and 11.2% annually, respectively (overall p = 0.001). An NT-proBNP level of <310 pg/ml was associated with a 75% reduction in the rate of SE compared with a level of ≥310 pg/ml (hazard ratio 0.25, 95% confidence interval 0.11 to 0.57; p = 0.001), independent of age, left ventricular outflow tract obstruction, or atrial fibrillation. In conclusion, in stable outpatients with hypertrophic cardiomyopathy, plasma NT-proBNP proved a powerful independent predictor of death and heart failure-related events. Although the positive predictive accuracy of an elevated NT-proBNP level was modest, low values reflected true clinical stability, suggesting the possibility of avoiding or postponing aggressive treatment options.