UV index forecasts and measurements of health-effective radiation

While erythemal irradiance as a potentially damaging effect to the skin has been extensively studied and short-term forecasts have been issued to the public to reduce detrimental immediate and long-term effects such as sunburn and skin cancer by overexposure, beneficial effects to human health such as vitamin D3 production by UV radiation and melatonin suppression by blue visible light have attained more and more attention, though both of them have not become part of forecasting yet.Using 4 years of solar radiation data measured at the mid-latitude site Lindenberg (52°N), and forecast daily maximum UV index values, an overall good correspondence has been found. The data base of solar UV radiation and illuminance has also been used to analyze effects of clouds and aerosols on the effective irradiance. Optically thick clouds can strongly modify the ratios between erythemal and vitamin D3 effective irradiance such that direct radiative transfer modeling of the latter in future UV forecasts should be preferably used. If parameterizations of vitamin D3 effective irradiance from erythemal irradiance are used instead, the optical cloud depth would have to be taken into account to avoid an overestimation of vitamin D3 with parameterizations neglecting cloud optical depth. Particular emphasis for the beneficial effects has been laid in our study on low exposure. Daily doses of solar irradiation for both vitamin D3 and melatonin suppression do not reach minimum threshold doses even with clear sky and unobstructed horizon during the winter months.