Scenario-based management of individual creativity

•We provide a novel approach to creativity management through the Bayesian network.•Both exploitation and exploration were important processes for creativity.•Exploitation is related to task complexity and bureaucratic culture.•Exploration is the most influential factor on individual creativity.•We could simulate how creativity is affected by factors with scenario analysis.

When we consider the fiercely competitive environment in which modern companies operate, highly creative people can be considered strategic assets in furthering companies’ competitiveness. This research provided a novel approach to creativity management through scenario analyses that applied the Bayesian network. This article focused particularly on perceptions of individual creativity and asked two questions: how do the processes of creative revelation—exploitation and exploration—contribute to building individual creativity, and how do environmental factors—task complexity, and bureaucratic and supportive cultures—affect individual creativity? The Bayesian network seems appropriate from this perspective because Bayesian network structure addresses the causal relationships between all variables. For the empirical test, we collected questionnaires and applied the Bayesian network to the survey data to extract a set of reliable causal relationships. By performing scenario-based simulations—both “what-if” and goal-seeking simulations—we found that individual creativity can be managed very effectively by adjusting the related variables in such a way as to maximize that quality.