Potential for significant reductions in dropout rates: Analysis of an entire 3rd grade state cohort

Nineteen percent of 1997–98 North Carolina 3rd graders were observed to drop out of high school. A series of logits predict probabilities of dropping out on determinants such as math and reading test scores, absenteeism, suspension, and retention, at the following grade levels: 3rd, 5th, 8th, and 9th. The same cohort and variables are used to estimate benefits to the 15,737 students admitted to a special program ostensibly for academically and intellectually gifted children. I estimate the probability of admission for schoolmates with similar ability in math and reading to be substantially higher for those from upper income households. Finally, I conclude that extending similar resources to an equal number of high-risk students, as determined by their 3rd grade predicted probabilities, would lead to a 25% reduction in the total cohort dropout rate, and that even dividing existing resources between the two groups could cut dropout rates by half that.

► 19.3% cohort dropout rate for 1998 3rd grade North Carolina public school students. ► Predicts probabilities of dropping out at successive grade levels: 3rd, 5th, 8th, and 9th. ► Finds growth and volatility of math and reading test scores to be important predictor. ► Entry into gifted program more highly correlated with income than test scores. ► Reallocating gifted program to high risk 3rd graders reduces dropout rate by 25%.